Preakness Preview: Mystik Dan Headed For Tainted Triple Crown? (2024)

Editor’s Note: This story was published before the Preakness favorite, Muth, was scratched from the race after spiking a fever.

The Preakness Stakes received a welcome shot in the hindquarters this past weekend when, after some initial trepidation, trainer Kenny McPeek announced that Kentucky Derby champion Mystik Dan would run in Saturday’s middle jewel at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

In confirming the entry, McPeek told The Daily Racing Form that he’d scoped Mystik Dan — a 5/2 second favorite on the Preakness morning line behind Arkansas Derby champ Muth (8/5) — and that he was “clean as a pen.”

But some seasoned analysts are casting a skeptical eye toward the situation.

“If it wasn’t for Forever Young and Sierra Leone trying to recreate Tyson-Holyfield in the homestretch, I don’t think Mystik Dan wins the Derby,” said Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Entertainment. “This is the first time in awhile the Derby winner has not gone off as the favorite in the Preakness, which tells you something. Kenny McPeek said the last time he ran [Mystik Dan] on two weeks rest, it backfired on him completely. Now you have [Bob] Baffert bringing his two horses across after rest, and Muth has already beaten Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby.”

Adding another layer of insight, FanDuel TV host Michael Joyce said, “The Preakness has always been the easiest leg of the Triple Crown. It’s not that way anymore because of the Baffert situation with fresh horses. I love Kenny McPeek, but he’s a hype man — he’s the Lil Jon of horse racing. You saw the bravado heading into the Derby and Oaks. He wasn’t that way coming out of the Derby.”

To that end, Mucklow thinks McPeek’s attitude on Saturday in Maryland could be telling.

“You could tell McPeek was really confident in the Oaks and Derby,” he said. “Trainers don’t give too much away, but he was very open in that he liked Mystik Dan’s chances a lot. That interview on race day might be telling. If he’s all in on race day for the Preakness, that might tell you something.”

Lukas’ strategy could influence pace

Joyce and Mucklow agree that Muth, who didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby on account of Baffert’s ongoing suspension from Churchill Downs, is a worthy favorite. But from a horse betting perspective, Mucklow thinks Muth’s price is too short, while Joyce said, “I don’t know that he doesn’t get undone by the pace here.”

Factoring heavily into Joyce’s thinking is the horse he thinks is the race’s livest longshot, the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Just Steel (15/1), who finished a spent 17th in the Kentucky Derby after losing by just two lengths to Muth in the Arkansas Derby on March 30.

“Joel [Rosario] is kind of a rider of extremes — he’s either on the lead or well off the pace,” Joyce said of Muth’s Preakness jockey, who replaces Keith Asmussen on the mount. Should Lukas instruct Rosario to fire early, it could, in Joyce’s opinion, create “a murky pace situation because two of the fastest horses are from the Baffert barn.”

“Here’s what you have to remember about Baffert horses: They’re all very similar in how they’re trained and how they run. He gets them very fast and very fit, and Muth is both of those things.”

Elsewhere in the field, stretch runner Catching Freedom (6/1), who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby along the same inside path as Mystik Dan, is likely to get a cleaner trip than he did at Churchill and could vie for a piece, while Chad Brown’s lightly raced Tuscan Gold (8/1) — third in the Louisiana Derby behind Catching Freedom — might boast the most untapped potential of any horse in the field.

“Tuscan Gold ran a really nice race in the Louisiana Derby,” said Joyce. “I don’t think we know how good he is.”

No asterisk required?

Should Mystik Dan prevail in the Preakness, he will, in all likelihood, vie for the Triple Crown three weeks later in the Belmont Stakes.

At its usual length of 1-1/2 miles, the Belmont is usually the ultimate test for 3-year-olds. But with Belmont Park under construction, this year’s race will be run at just 1-1/4 miles at the storied Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York.

So, should Mystik Dan triumph there after prevailing in Baltimore, will his accomplishment warrant an asterisk?

“No, I don’t think so,” replied Joyce. “It’s unbelievably hard to do, but it’s only been cemented as is for the last 60 years or so. They used to change the dates and distances. If Mystik Dan wins the Triple Crown, there will be no less of a rush to get him into the breeding shed. With or without a Triple Crown on a line, I think this year’s Belmont would be one of the all-time great events since it’s being held at Saratoga. If he wins the Triple Crown, it will make it that much more memorable.

“We are a fandom that loves to denigrate winners because it’s a betting sport. We want to get a price that next time out. If Mystik Dan wins a Triple Crown, he’s an all-time great horse. I don’t think it matters if it (the Belmont win) comes at a mile-and-a-quarter.”

Mucklow stands in concurrence.

“You’ve beaten a quality field in the Derby, you’ve beaten fresher horses and a quality field in the Preakness — it speaks of a tremendous training feat,” he said. “You’ve got to win three quality races in six weeks. It’s tough.”

Yet where the two analysts differ is whether it would be possible to run the Belmont at Saratoga at its classic 1 1/2-mile length.

“I think it’s where you would have to put the starting gate in relation to the turns, and you can’t stack a gate on top of a turn,” said Joyce. “If you wanted to prevent that, you’d have to have such a long run-up that it would be a farce of a race. When you stack a gate closer to a turn, post position creates greater advantages and disadvantages.”

“Being from the UK, there are a lot of races that start on a turn,” countered Mucklow, who wrote his doctoral dissertation on that exact topic. “It’s a huge advantage drawing post one, two, three, or four, but Fierceness got a bad draw in the Derby, Stronghold got a bad draw, Sierra Leone got a bad draw. But that’s why you have a draw.”

Photo: Justin Casterline/Getty Images